Self-efficacy regarding physical activity is superior to self-assessed activity level, in long-term prediction of cardiovascular events in middle-aged men

BACKGROUND Self-efficacy has been determined to be a strong predictor of who will engage in physical activity. We aimed to evaluate the associations between self-efficacy to perform physical activity, self-reported leisure-time physical activity and cardiovascular events in a population-based cohort of middle-aged Swedish men with no previous cardiovascular disease, or treatment with cardiovascular drugs. METHODS Analyses are based on 377 men randomly selected and stratified for weight and insulin sensitivity from a population sample of 58-year-old men (n = 1728) and who had answered a question about their competence to perform exercise (as an assessment of physical self-efficacy). The Saltin-Grimby Physical Activity Level Scale was used to assess self-reported levels of leisure-time physical activity. Cardiovascular events were recorded during 13-years of follow-up. RESULTS The group with poor self-efficacy to perform physical activity had a significantly higher incidence of cardiovascular events compared with the group with good physical self-efficacy (32.1% vs 17.1%, p < 0.01). Multivariate analyses showed that poor physical self-efficacy was associated with an increased relative risk of 2.0 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.0), of having a cardiovascular event during follow-up also after adjustments for co-variates such as waist to hip ratio, heart rate, fasting plasma glucose, serum triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, apoB/apoA-I ratio and leisure-time physical activity. CONCLUSION Self-efficacy to perform physical activity was strongly and independently associated with cardiovascular events and was superior to self-assessed physical activity in predicting cardiovascular events during 13-years of follow-up in a group of middle-aged men, without known CVD or treatment with cardiovascular drugs.